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"Діра" в бюджеті – 300 мільярдів. Чи зможе уряд профінансувати такий дефіцит

  • 28 Липня 2020, 19:01
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Дефіцит бюджету сягнув рекордного значення за останні п'ять років. Що зараз відбувається з його фінансуванням, які ризики є для країни та що заважає Мінфіну проводити зважену боргову політику.

До початку нового політичного сезону, затвердження урядом та внесення до парламенту проєкту закону про державний бюджет залишилося півтора місяці.

Поки цього не сталось треба проаналізувати успіхи та помилки в цій сфері у 2020 році. Є низку ключових питань.

Перше – чи зможе уряд взагалі профінансувати дефіцит держбюджету, який є рекордним для України щонайменше за останні п'ять років? Друге – що відбувається з фінансуванням державного бюджету? Третє – якою буде боргова політика Мінфіну?

Ситуація з фінансуванням дефіциту і погашенням боргів у 2020 році складна. Протягом року Міністерству фінансів потрібно залучити рекордний для останніх років обсяг кредитів. Це зумовлено двома факторами.

Перший – повернення старих боргів. На 2020 рік заплановані погашення боргів на 346 млрд грн (без урахування 145 млрд грн на обслуговування боргів, які держава сплачує з видаткової частини бюджету). З них 216 млрд грн – внутрішній борг, 130 млрд грн – зовнішній.

Ця сума порівнянна з обсягом погашень, які Україна робила в попередні роки, але все ж значна.

 

 
ДЖЕРЕЛО: ДЕРЖАВНА КАЗНАЧЕЙСЬКА СЛУЖБА


Другий – дефіцит держбюджету, який потрібно профінансувати. Коронакриза знизила надходження до бюджету, а видатки навпаки – зростають. Через це у квітні 2020 року парламент підтримав пропозиції уряду із змін до держбюджету.

Ці зміни полягали у зниженні доходів на 120 млрд грн до 975 млрд грн. Зокрема, був зменшений план податкових надходжень на 143 млрд грн. Водночас видатки зросли на 82,4 млрд грн до 1 266 млрд грн. Відповідно, дефіцит збільшився більш ніж утричі: з 96 млрд грн до 298 млрд грн.

Це означає, що майже кожна четверта гривня видатків державного бюджету у 2020 році повинна фінансуватися через залучення нових боргів (з урахуванням місцевих бюджетів це співвідношення буде меншим). Це також найбільший рівень загального дефіциту з 2016 року.

З урахуванням обсягу погашення боргів та потреб у фінансуванні дефіциту загальна потреба уряду в залученні боргового фінансування зросла майже вдвічі до 653 млрд грн. План за зовнішніми запозиченнями збільшився із 111 млрд грн до 242 млрд грн, за внутрішніми – з 231 млрд грн до 372 млрд грн.

Мінфін дає собі раду: завдання взяти в борг 261 млрд грн за загальним фондом держбюджету у першому півріччі він виконав, хоча робити це було нелегко.

По-перше, це стало реальністю завдяки залученню коштів від міжнародних партнерів, передусім МВФ, в обсязі понад 70 млрд грн у червні 2020 року. Без них у кінці травня, за 40% бюджетного періоду, Мінфін залучив лише 162,6 млрд грн або 25% від річного обсягу боргового фінансування.

По-друге, нерезиденти, які інвестували в українські борги у 2019 році, почали виходити з цих інвестицій. Обсяг ОВДП у власності нерезидентів з початку року зменшився на 18% із 118 млрд грн до 96,5 млрд грн 14 липня 2020 року.

Через відсутність попиту Міністерству фінансів довелося скасувати значну кількість аукціонів з розміщення облігацій внутрішньої державної позики, а на аукціонах, які були успішними, відомство підтримували банки.

 

 
ДЖЕРЕЛО: НБУ
 

 
Поки інші типи покупців українського боргу з початку 2020 року зменшували обсяги державних паперів у своїй власності, банки збільшили їх на 20%: з 336 млрд грн до 403 млрд грн. У тому числі з 30 квітня, тобто з моменту кризи, – на 18%. Частка банків серед власників ОВДП зросла із 41% до 47%. 

По-третє, у другому півріччі ситуація із залученням фінансування для Мінфіну буде навіть складнішою. Ключове навантаження із залучення боргів заплановане на липень-грудень 2020 року. За цей період потрібно залучити ще 355 млрд грн – на 36% більше, ніж було залучено за січень-червень.

Лише за таких умов Мінфін зможе і погасити урядові борги, і профінансувати дефіцит бюджету, а отже – його видатки.

 

 
ДЖЕРЕЛА: ДЕРЖАВНА КАЗНАЧЕЙСЬКА СЛУЖБА, МІНФІН. РОЗРАХУНКИ: ЦЕНТР АНАЛІЗУ ПУБЛІЧНИХ ФІНАНСІВ ТА ПУБЛІЧНОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ KSE

 


 
ДЖЕРЕЛА: ДЕРЖАВНА КАЗНАЧЕЙСЬКА СЛУЖБА, МІНФІН. РОЗРАХУНКИ: ЦЕНТР АНАЛІЗУ ПУБЛІЧНИХ ФІНАНСІВ ТА ПУБЛІЧНОГО УПРАВЛІННЯ KSE


Чи зможе Мінфін це зробити? Це залежатиме від кількох факторів.

По-перше – від наявності допомоги міжнародних фінансових організацій. Це впливатиме на можливість Мінфіну виходити на зовнішні ринки і на вартість внутрішніх запозичень. Однак це залежить не стільки від Мінфіну, скільки від дій президента, прем'єра, нового глави НБУ і фракції "Слуга народу" в парламенті.

23 липня Мінфін зміг провести успішне розміщення єврооблігацій на 2 млрд дол, після скасованої спроби вийти на зовнішні ринки 1 липня. З цих коштів понад 1,1 млрд дол підуть на фінансування бюджету. Тим не менш, це лише маленька частина позик, які треба здійснити у другому півріччі для виконання плану. 

По-друге – від законотворчої діяльності народних депутатів. В останні роки Мінфін мав якщо не абсолютну прерогативу, то принаймні умовне право вето на ініціативи депутатів, які призводили б до збільшення видаткової чи зменшення дохідної частин бюджету. Тепер цієї прерогативи, вочевидь, нема.

У підсумку вирує майже безпрецедентний шквал ініціатив народних депутатів, який впливає на видаткову та дохідну частини бюджету. Більшість їхніх новацій ускладнює пошук фінансування дефіциту.

Зменшення чи відтермінування надходжень або збільшення видатків бюджету означатимуть подальше зростання дефіциту бюджету, а отже – потребу в додаткових боргах.

Парламентарі не повинні заважати Мінфіну робити свою роботу. Депутатам варто утриматися від подальшого збільшення дефіциту чи порушень умов співпраці з міжнародними партнерами, адже у випадку браку коштів це відомство не зможе профінансувати частину видатків.

Видатки бюджету вже фінансуються на рівні, значно нижчому за плановий. У той час як план за доходами загального фонду за січень-травень був виконаний на 88,4%, видатки загального фонду були профінансовані лише на 83,5%.

Наприкінці травня не було профінансовано понад 70 млрд грн запланованих на цей час видатків. Зокрема, 35 млрд грн не було профінансовано через те, що Міністерство фінансів не відкрило асигнувань.

 

 
ДЖЕРЕЛО: ДЕРЖАВНА КАЗНАЧЕЙСЬКА СЛУЖБА

За результатами 2020 року цей обсяг може бути значно більшим. Міністерство фінансів фінансуватиме перш за все захищені видатки бюджету, у тому числі заробітну плату, соціальні видатки, обслуговування державного боргу.

Капітальні видатки та інвестиційні проєкти (будівництво доріг, аеропортів) фінансуватимуться за залишковим принципом.

Іншими словами, спроможність Мінфіну профінансувати політично важливі проєкти, зокрема "Велике будівництво", залежить від того, чи не заважатимуть йому залучати боргове фінансування в потрібному обсязі на більш-менш вигідних для України умовах.

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