Криза довіри: чим небезпечні для України дефолт і розрив з МВФ

  • 28 Березня 2020, 17:05
  • 77 Коментарів

Україна стоїть на порозі економічної кризи, минути яку їй не вдасться. Щоб вистояти, владі треба якомога швидше укласти нову угоду з Міжнародним валютним фондом, відкривши тим самим шлях до дешевих позик від інших кредиторів.

Грати самостійно на тлі невизначеності з коронавірусом і його наслідками країна не зможе. А тому не платити борги і розривати відносини з кредиторами – не той шлях, по якому слід йти державі, запевняють економісти.

В іншому випадку влада ризикує отримати вибух безробіття, неконтрольовану інфляцію, а як результат – політичну і соціальну кризи. Докладніше про те, кому вигідний дефолт і чому його треба уникнути – у матеріалі РБК-Україна.

Через епідемію коронавірусу Україна, як і більшість країн, опинилася на межі економічної кризи. Боротьба з інфекцією обійдеться дорого як бізнесу, так і громадянам, чиї доходи впадуть.

Кабінет міністрів вже готує перегляд держбюджету, плануючи збільшити його дефіцит (орієнтовно на 200 млрд гривень) і скоротити "необов'язкові" витрати, що у будь-якому випадку викличе критику. Цим шляхом підуть багато країн, навіть ті, які набагато багатше України.

Платять не тільки боягузи


Поки країна перебуває у стресі через пандемію, деякі політики і бізнесмени підняли питання про дефолт, запропонувавши відмовитися від виплат боргів.

Легковажно тиражуючи цю ідею, вони пояснюють користь дефолту тим, що зекономлені на держборзі гроші можна витратити на соціальні потреби, пенсії, виплати безробітним, житлові субсидії.

Тільки це досить сумнівний аргумент, запевняють опитані виданням економісти. Адже уряд має віддати кредиторам у цьому році менше, ніж у найближчий час доведеться знову у них позичати. До того ж навіть формальних підстав для дефолту в Україні немає.

По-перше, у країни достатньо золотовалютних резервів (ЗВР), а сума боргів, які залишилося погасити у цьому році, не настільки критична, щоб ставити питання про дефолт.

Як пояснив РБК-Україна член наглядової ради Міжнародного фонду Блейзера, радник президента Олег Устенко, резерви Нацбанку зараз знаходяться на рівні понад 24 млрд доларів, а після того, як "Нафтогаз" продасть близько 2 млрд доларів (гроші, отримані від "Газпрому" за рішенням Стокгольмського арбітражу), обсяг ЗВР ще зросте.

"Для мене здається дивним при наявності резервів 24 млрд доларів (а буде 26 млрд доларів) говорити про дефолт на тлі того, що майбутні зовнішні виплати до кінця року становлять близько 30% золотовалютних резервів", – зазначив Устенко.

У Національному банку також вказують на те, що не бачать підстав для дефолту, запевняючи, що такий варіант навіть не розглядають.

По-друге, значна частина зовнішнього боргу, який потрібно погасити в 2020 році – це виплати МВФ за раніше залученими позиками та погашення на 1 млрд доларів єврооблігацій, випущених під гарантії США. Багато із запланованого на цей рік Мінфін вже виплатив.

Решта зовнішніх погашень – близько 1,3 млрд доларів за комерційними євробондами, зазначив виконавчий директор CASE Україна Дмитро Боярчук.

"З МВФ і США, звичайно, ніхто "дефолтити" не буде. Ціна питання, що залишається – близько 1,3 млрд доларів. Оголосити дефолт, а потім отримати заморожені кредитні програми з усіма "принадами" і наслідками, це не дуже розумна позиція", – вважає економіст.

По-третє, враховуючи плани влади збільшити дефіцит держбюджету, без нових позик не обійтися. Звідки взяти гроші? Є два варіанти: провести емісію – друкувати гроші, або позичати у зовнішніх кредиторів.

"Емісія означає, що у нас повністю змінюється баланс гривні до іноземної валюти. Це фактично означає безконтрольну девальвацію", – пояснює Дмитро Боярчук.

Нові позики неможливі при дефолті, після якого нижче "сміттєвого" стане не тільки кредитний рейтинг країни як позичальника, але і всіх як приватних, так і державних компаній.

Зовнішні ринки для них закриються, так само як і іноземні інвестиції, необхідні економіці для подолання наслідків коронавірусу.

"Якщо ви оголошуєте дефолт, у вас, швидше за все, ще буде і додатковий відтік валюти. Фактично, оголошуючи дефолт, ви залишаєте єдиний шанс фінансування своїх потреб – емісійний.

І тому дефолт, як правило, супроводжується падінням національної валюти, прискоренням інфляції і всіма наслідками, які з цього випливають: втратою робочих місць, зниженням купівельної спроможності", – пояснив виконавчий директор CASE Україна.

Яскравий приклад того, що відбувається у країні після дефолту, – Аргентина. Ця країна двічі допустила дефолт – у 2001 і 2014 роках.

Майже 20 років тому відмова платити за рахунками закінчилася для неї затримками пенсій, конфіскацією грошей громадян з накопичувальних пенсійних фондів, девальвацією місцевого песо і масовими заворушеннями.

 

Ключовий кредитор


Допустити дефолт тоді, коли цього можна уникнути, значить не просто втратити довіру інвесторів та репутацію на світових фінансових ринках.

Це ще й сильний політичний удар для влади і особисто для рейтингу Володимира Зеленського, враховуючи соціальні наслідки такого рішення. На цьому фоні можуть посилитися позиції проросійських сил, які наполягають на зміні зовнішньополітичного вектора країни.

І тому, щоб не давати приводів для чуток про дефолт, владі слід якомога швидше укласти угоду по новій кредитній програмі з МВФ.

Олег Устенко уточнив, що зараз мова йде про дві програми – програму розширеного фінансування (EFF), щодо якої Україна попередньо домовилася з МВФ ще у кінці минулого року, і програму допомоги країнам, які протистоять коронавірусу.

Якщо спочатку мова йшла про 5,5 млрд доларів за програмою EFF, то зараз розмір програми може скласти як мінімум 7 млрд доларів, вважає Устенко.

Тоді як програма для боротьби з наслідками коронавірусу може бути збільшена з початково очікуваних 1,5 млрд доларів до як мінімум 2,5 млрд доларів.

"Є розуміння того, що перший транш може бути досить вагомим, скажімо, у межах як мінімум 2 млрд доларів за програмою розширеного фінансування і близько 0,5 млрд доларів за другою програмою", – говорить Олег Устенко.

Досить імовірно, що частина цих траншів буде спрямована не у резерви Нацбанку, а безпосередньо до держбюджету, у тому числі на соціальні потреби та інші витрати держскарбниці. Подібна практика у співпраці МВФ з Україною вже була в кризові 2009 і 2014 роки.

До того ж, почавши програму з МВФ, розблокується ряд позик від інших кредиторів (ЄС, Світовий банк). Тоді як без МВФ, на тлі стиснення економіки, зростання витрат держбюджету і зниження його доходів, уряд не зможе вийти на зовнішні ринки, щоб позичити грошей.

Не факт, що вдасться компенсувати втрату зовнішніх кредиторів на внутрішньому ринку, навіть якщо підключити держбанки до викупу ОВДП, потреба у фінансуванні занадто висока.

 

Виклик Коломойському


Щоб домовитися з Фондом, залишилося всього кілька кроків. Останній етап – прийняти узгоджений з МВФ закон про банки і проголосувати відкриття ринку сільгоспземлі.

Про це у Вашингтоні у четвер заявила директор-розпорядник Фонду Крісталіна Георгієва, зазначивши значний прогрес у переговорах з українською владою. Виконання цих умов, як випливає з її заяви, дасть змогу Україні розраховувати на програму більшого обсягу, ніж передбачалося спочатку.

Законопроект про банки передбачає, що екс-власники неплатоспроможних банків не зможуть їх повернути навіть у разі рішення суду. Для МВФ прийняття цього закону – певна гарантія, що влада не піде назустріч колишнім власникам і не перекреслить реформу з очищення банківського ринку.

Очікувано проти цього проекту закону виступив олігарх Ігор Коломойський, а також частина депутатів "Слуги народу", інших фракцій і груп, які на нього орієнтуються.

Прихильники бізнесмена не приховують, що підтримують ідею дефолту, у тому числі і перед МВФ. Тоді як багато інших членів фракції президента Зеленського навпаки наполягають на ухваленні банківського проекту, їх обіцяють підтримати у фракціях "Голос" і "Європейська солідарність".

Чому це важливо? Коломойський не залишає спроб у судах оскаржити націоналізацію Приватбанку, буквально заваливши позовами НБУ, Мінфін та Фонд гарантування вкладів фізосіб.

Інша сторона в особі Приватбанку, Нацбанку та ряду відомств намагаються у міжнародних юрисдикціях (у Великобританії, Швейцарії та США) стягнути з Коломойського і його бізнес-партнерів збиток, який держава зазнала при націоналізації банку.

На відшкодування збитків з екс-власників банків, що лопнули, наполягає й МВФ, що зі зрозумілих причин не влаштовує Коломойського.

Цікаво, що і сам бізнесмен ще у минулому році відкрито виступав з ідеєю дефолту, заявивши про "втому українців від вимог МВФ". І для нього, можливо, як ні для кого іншого з великого бізнесу вигідний і дефолт, і розрив відносин із західним кредитором.

Адже, з одного боку, без тиску Фонду влада вже не буде настільки наполегливою у питанні відшкодування збитків, а, з іншого, відпаде необхідність приймати закон про банки, який може поставити крапку у домаганнях олігарха на його колишній банк.

Крім того, потрібно розуміти, що обвал гривні і фінансова криза у країні у разі дефолту знецінять вартість українських активів, які можуть скуповувати за заниженими цінами, у тому числі і ініціатори дефолту.

Враховуючи, що іноземним інвесторам не буде діла до країни, яка допустила дефолт, є ризик, що багато промислових і фінансових активів, у тому числі і під час приватизації, опиняться у руках монополістів.

І тому прийняття банківського закону, так само як і закону про ринок землі, стане певним Рубіконом для "Слуги народу" Зеленського, показавши, яким шляхом вони планують вести країну, перебуваючи на порозі економічної кризи.

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